Chances Of Winning 3 Blackjack Hands In A Row

Blackjack is one of the least volatile casino games because you have a 46.36% chance of winning any hand (not counting ties). Add in that you can double down and split hands in favorable situations, and you’re dealing with a near 50/50 proposition.

Using the 42.22% figure the odds of wining three specific hands in a row (such as the next three hands) 0.4222^3 = 0.07526 = 7.526 percent of the time. Of course, the odds or winning three hands in.

Nevertheless, blackjack can still be a streaky game. It’s not uncommon to win or lose 3-4 hands in a row.

• If the player decides to make a Streak wager, he places his chips in at least one of the four betting circles that indicate a streak of 2 in a row, 3 in a row, 4 in a row or 5 in a row. If a player bets on 2 in a row and wins 2 consecutive blackjack hands, the player gets paid at 4 to 1 odds. That means if you bet $5 and win, your payoff is $20.
• It’s Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hands In A Row very often casinos give away bonuses for existing players. This is often a reactivation bonus so if you have not been playing for a long time you might receive this as a good will to get you back.

Some players try to capitalize on winning streaks by increasing their bets, but they often use a randomized approach that involves betting whatever they feel like in the moment.

I’m going to discuss some different ways that you can take advantage of winning streaks through systematic approaches. I’ll also cover how you can turn losing streaks into profits.

But let’s first dive into what your chances are of experiencing both winning and losing streaks in blackjack.

Probabilities of Blackjack Winning and Losing Streaks

Most blackjack streaks last for 2 to 3 hands. This makes winning and losing runs that last for 4 or more hands an unlikely occurrence.

Chances Of Winning 3 Blackjack Hands In A Row One

But, as the statistics show, you can never rule out anything in blackjack. The chances of a 9 hand winning streak are 0.1%, meaning this can happen 1 out of every 1,000 times in a nine hand stretch.

Here’s a look at the odds of both winning and losing streaks:

The stats support why blackjack streaks often occur within 2 or 3 hands. Any winning or losing run after this has less than a 10% chance of happening.

Can You Really Win More Money Based on Blackjack Streaks?

Before we get started on the methods that you can use to take advantage of blackjack streaks, I want to discuss if it’s feasible to increase profits during winning runs.

Before blackjack strategy became more prevalent thanks to the internet, many players simply thought that blind luck governed winning and losing streaks.

But streaks aren’t the result of some mysterious force working for or against you. Instead, this is merely statistics at work.

Mathematicians will tell you that a systematic approach during streaks won’t help you win any more money than if you keep flat betting. But there are certain factors that can cause a winning or losing streak.

One example includes an imperfect shuffle, which leaves clumps of high and low cards. And more high cards (a.k.a. aces through jacks) improves your chances of getting a natural blackjack.

The only problem is that it’s nearly impossible to predict when the deck hasn’t been shuffled thoroughly enough.

Whether or not you can take advantage of blackjack streaks with precision is debatable. But what you can count on is building on your winnings during a hot streak.

Likewise, with the right strategy, you can actually earn profits after a losing streak. And this is exactly what I’m going to cover in the upcoming sections.

Taking Advantage of Blackjack Winning Streaks

A great way to capitalize on blackjack winning streaks is by using a positive progression system. Positive progression strategies involve increasing your bets during hot streaks so that you can win even more money.

The best thing about these systems is that they don’t put your bankroll in danger. Instead, a positive progression system only calls on you to increase bets when you’re already winning.

Of course, the downside is that you can also blow your earnings because you’re betting more, but many blackjack players are willing to take this risk if it means turning marginal winnings into a huge profit.

You and I will cover some of these positive progression systems below. I’ll also discuss how you can use winning streaks to camouflage your card counting efforts.

Paroli System

The Paroli system is one of the easiest positive progression strategies to use. You begin by determining a fixed betting unit.

Ideally, this amount will be worth 2% to 5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is worth $500, you can use a $10 betting unit.

The Paroli works by doubling your betting unit after every win. You then stop after three wins and return to the original stake.

Some players like going to 4-5 wins before returning to the original bet, but this is risky because we already covered that your chances of winning four straight hands are less than 10%.

Here’s an example on using the Paroli for a three win sequence:

• You bet $10 and win.
• You bet $20 and win.
• You bet $40 and win.
• You return to the original $10 bet.

The nice thing about the Paroli system is that you win more during hot streaks without being too risky. The trouble, though, is that you only have a 10.6% chance of winning a three hand sequence.

1 3 2 6 System

The 1 3 2 6 strategy isn’t as popular as the Paroli, but it’s still a simple positive progression strategy that can bring you big winnings.

This system begins with choosing a fixed betting unit. And just like with the Paroli, 2% to 5% of your bankroll is a good unit size.

Each number in the 1 3 2 6 system represents how many betting units you risk in the sequence. In other words, you bet one unit, followed by three units, two units, and six units.

You start a fresh sequence every time you lose a bet or win four straight wagers. Here’s an example of using this strategy:

• Your betting unit is $10.
• You bet $10 and win.
• You bet $30 and win.
• You bet $20 and win.
• You bet $60 and win.
• Return to a $10 bet.

The primary advantage of the 1 3 2 6 strategy is that you can book profits even if you don’t complete the sequence. The downside is that you’ll rarely win four blackjack hands in a row and reach the end of the betting string.

Reverse Labouchere

The reverse Labouchere system is one of the most complicated gambling strategies. But you should still be able to pick up this system within a few minutes.

The reverse Labouchere starts with creating a sequence of numbers. The numbers should add up to your desired profit for the betting string.

You then add the first and last number in the sequence to determine your next bet.

If you win the wager, you add the combined amount to the end of your sequence. After a loss, you cross off both numbers and continue to the next wager.

Odds Of Losing 3 Blackjack Hands In A Row

You start over with a new sequence whenever completing the number string. Here’s an example of using the reverse Labouchere:

• Your sequence is: 1 2 4 5 4 = $16 profit.
• Your first bet is $5 (1 + 4).
• You win, and your new string becomes: 1 2 4 5 4 5.
• Your next bet is $6 (1+ 5).
• You lose, and your new sequence becomes: 2 4 5 4.

The drawback to this strategy is that it normally takes a while to complete your betting sequence. But the upside is that you can win solid profits after completing the number string.

One Half Increase

The one half increase system is aptly named, because you increase your betting unit by one half after a two-hand winning streak. You continue this half unit increase for every subsequent win.

• Your unit size is $20.
• You win a $20 bet.
• You win a $20 bet.
• Your next wager becomes $30.
• You win the $30 bet.
• Your next wager becomes $40.
• You lose the $40 bet.
• Return to the original $20 wager.

The one half increase is my favorite positive progression system, because it allows you to capitalize on win streaks without risking the majority of your profits.

Card Counting Cover

One of the biggest challenges in card counting is making sure that the casino doesn’t know you’re a counter. Trying to take advantage of winning streaks is a good way to accomplish this goal.

This is especially the case when it’s early in a shoe hands and there isn’t much deck penetration. If the dealer or pit boss notices you increasing bets at this point, they’ll think that you’re just a regular player who’s looking for more wins during a hot streak.

Let’s contrast this to a card counter who flat bets while winning 3-4 hands in a row. This becomes suspicious when you suddenly increase your bet by wide margins later in the shoe.

A good time to boost your bets during a winning streak is when the true count is at 0 or +1.

These are points when a normal card counter flat bets. But again, increasing your wagers at this point makes it look like you’re simply a progressive better.

Of course, you should avoid spreading your bets too high in these cases, because you don’t have a mathematical advantage. But wagering an extra unit can help you with camouflaging when you’re taking heat from the pit boss.

Taking Advantage of Blackjack Losing Streaks

Taking advantage of a losing streak sounds like an oxymoron. After all, how is it possible to gain any advantage from losing in blackjack?

But you actually can swing things in your favor with the right negative progression systems. A negative progression strategy calls on you to bet more when you’re losing.

This is extremely risky because you can pile up more losses during a cold streak. However, you can also win back all of your losses and book a profit when things go your way.

Below I’ll cover a few different negative progression systems along with how these strategies can camouflage card counting.

Martingale

The Martingale is easy to use because the only requirement involves doubling bets after every loss.

You start off by wagering the table minimum. You double this amount every time you lose, and return to the table minimum after any win.

• You bet $5 and lose (bankroll at -5).
• You bet $10 and lose (bankroll at -15).
• You bet $20 and lose (bankroll at -35).
• You bet $40 and lose (bankroll at -75).
• You bet $80 and lose (bankroll at -155).
• You bet $160 and lose (bankroll at -315).
• You bet $320 and win (bankroll at +5).

The upside is that this system actually gives you an advantage in theory. As long as you always win to end a losing streak, you’ll earn back your losses plus a small profit.

The major downside is that you can lose your entire bankroll during long losing runs. Another problem is that you’ll eventually hit the table betting limit if you lose enough hands.

This is why I suggest finding tables with a low minimum bet and generous max wager if you’re going to use the Martingale.

Oscar’s Grind

Oscar’s Grind is a fairly complicated strategy that involves increasing your bets following a losing streak.

You start out by choosing a unit size, such as $10 or $20. You then wager one unit until you run into a losing streak.

As soon as your losing streak ends, you increase your bet size by one unit. This continues until you’ve earned a one-unit profit.

At this point, you return to betting a single unit until the next losing streak occurs. Here’s an example of how Oscar’s Grind works:

• You bet 1 unit ($10) and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -1)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -3)
• You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -4)
• You bet 1 unit and win – Next bet is 2 units (bankroll at -3)

• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -5)
• You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -7)
• You bet 2 units and win – Next bet is 3 units (bankroll at -5)
• You bet 3 units and win – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2).
• You bet 3 units and win – Next bet is 1 unit (bankroll at +1).

My favorite thing about Oscar’s Grind is that you don’t have to risk much money after a losing streak. This allows you to win back your money in a more conservative manner.

The drawback is that some blackjack players won’t be happy with how slowly this system works.

Labouchere

Earlier I covered how the reverse Labouchere works, and the regular Labouchere has the same structure, only in a negative progression format.

This strategy begins by creating a number string that represents your bet amounts. The sequence can be however long you’d like, but I suggest keeping it to 5 to 8 numbers.

The next step is to make your first bet by combining the first and last numbers.

You cross both numbers off after a win and continue to the next wager. Following a loss, you add the combined bet to the end of the sequence.

• Your number sequence is: 1 4 6 3 4 7.
• Your first bet is $8.
• You lose, and your new string becomes: 1 4 6 3 4 7 8.
• Your next bet is $9.
• You win, and your new string becomes: 4 6 3 4 7.

The good thing about this system is that it’s less risky than the Martingale, but you still carry a fair amount of risk because it takes a while to complete each number string.

Card Counting Cover

Negative progression betting systems are another way that you can hide your card counting efforts.

When the true count is at 0 or +1, you increase your units to make it seem like you’re temporarily using a negative progression strategy.

And when the count is in your favor later in the shoe, it will merely appear that you’re using a positive progression system.

Negative progression strategies don’t work as well in camouflaging efforts. The reason why is because pit bosses may think it’s strange that you’re alternating between negative and positive systems.

But this is still better than increasing your bets later in the shoe during a very positive count, then flat betting at every other point.

Return to Minimum Bet

Another way to handle blackjack losing streaks involves returning to the table minimum.

This doesn’t help you to take advantage of losing runs like the systems covered above. But if you’ve been wagering above the table minimum, decreasing your bet will limit losses during a downswing.

The important thing to realize here is that no gambling system can overcome the blackjack house edge. This is why it’s so risky to increase wagers when you’re losing.

By making the minimum bet, you can ride out losing streaks and eventually start betting big again when you’re winning.

Conclusion

Betting more or less during streaks isn’t necessarily a foolproof way to beat blackjack, but betting strategies can at least help you take full advantage of winning and losing streaks.

This is especially the case during winning runs, where a positive progressive system really increases your profits. My favorite positive progression strategy is the one-half increase, but the Paroli, 1 3 2 6, and reverse Labouchere are also widely used.

Negative progression systems help you chase losses and eventually end up with a small profit, but you should be careful with these strategies because they add more risk to a losing situation.

Keep in mind that no betting system overcomes the blackjack house advantage. However, you can at least manipulate your short-term winnings and take advantage of winning/losing streaks with these strategies.

Numbers Don’t Lie

By Henry Tamburin

Dominator, who is my good friend and fellow blackjack instructor, will probably kill me when he reads this article. He’s always preaching to me that blackjack players 'don’t want to know how the clock works, they just want to know what time it is, so don’t bore them with a lot of numbers.' But I’ve decided to risk life and limb and discuss some of the more important blackjack statistics in my column this month, because I believe it helps players better understand the fundamentals of winning blackjack strategies. I’ve got to admit, however, that numbers are boring to most folks, so I crafted this article as a fun quiz (at least I hope you find it entertaining, as well as informative). So let’s get going, and Dom, if you are reading this …have mercy on me.

1.Ignoring ties, the percentage of hands that you can expect to win when you play blackjack is about:

a. 45 percent

b. 48 percent

c. 50 percent

Answer: b. When you ignore the 9 percent of the hands that tie, you can expect to win 48 percent of the hands dealt to you, and lose 52 percent. Notice that you will lose significantly more hands than you win. So how do you win money playing blackjack? For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is slightly greater than a single betting unit because the latter are sometimes hands where you get a blackjack and are paid at 3-2, or you double down and win double the amount of your bet. Losing hands, on the other hand, often lose only a single betting unit. The result is that monetarily you will be close to, but not quite even when you play (this assumes that you use the basic playing strategy for all your hands). If you want to go a step further and win much more money on winning hands compared to the amount you will lose on losing hands, so that overall you show a gain, then you’ve got to learn card counting.

Chances Of Winning 3 Blackjack Hands In A Row Echelon

2.If you are dealt three consecutive hands, what is the chance that they will all lose, excluding ties?

a. 1 percent

b. 14 percent

c. 30 percent

Answer: b. You have about a 14 percent chance of losing three hands in a row when you play blackjack. Surprised? Most players probably guess 1 percent because they figure the chance of this happening is very low. Well it isn’t, so don’t panic and abandon the basic playing strategy when it happens.

3.How frequently does a player get a blackjack?

a. Once every 15 hands

b. Once every 21 hands

c. Once every 30 hands

Answer: b. The game is 21 and you can expect to get a blackjack once in every 21 hands. This brings me to the point why I harp that you should never play any blackjack game that pays 6-5, instead of 3-2, for a winning blackjack. Suppose you play two hours’ worth of blackjack on one of the heavily advertised, $10 minimum, 6-5 single deck games. Let’s assume you are dealt 100 hands per hour, so over the course of two hours you played 200 hands of blackjack. Getting a blackjack once every 21 hands means that you should theoretically have gotten about 10 blackjacks. Sometimes you’ll get more blackjacks in two hours of play, sometimes less, but on average you’ll get 10. Each of those blackjack hands cost you $3 on a 6-5 game (the difference between getting paid 3-2 vs. 6-5, or $12 instead of $15, for your $10 wager). So you forked over $30 to the casino for the privilege of playing a single deck game (yeah, right). Save your money and avoid playing any 6-5 single deck games.

4.How frequently does a basic strategy player bust?

a. Once every six hands

b. Once every eight hands

c. Once every ten hands

Answer. a. A basic strategy player can expect to bust about 16 percent of the time or once every six hands. When a player busts, he always loses. Not so with the dealer (see next question).

5.How frequently does the dealer bust?

a. One time out of every seven hands

b. Two times out of every seven hands

c. Three times out of every seven hands.

Answer: b. The dealer busts about 28 percent of the time, or about two times out of every seven hands. Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because players who act first and bust automatically lose (this is how the house has a built-in edge in blackjack). The 28 percent is an average over all possible dealer upcards. In fact, the dealer will bust significantly more times when she shows a 2-6 upcard (about 42 percent with a 5 or 6 upcard), and much less with a 7 through Ace upcard (with an Ace, it’s only 17 percent after checking for a natural). Because the dealer’s chance of busting is higher when she shows a small upcard, you should not risk busting a 12-16 stiff hand and should always stand (with two exceptions - it’s slightly better to hit a 12 against a dealer’s 2 or 3). However, when the dealer shows a strong upcard from 7 though Ace and has a much lower risk of busting, you should be more aggressive and hit your stiff hands until your hand totals 17 or more (even if it means you risk busting).

6.You can expect your initial two-card hand to be a hard 12-17 about:

a. 30 percent of the time

b. 35 per cent of the time

c. 43 percent of the time

Answer: c. About 43 percent of the time you’ll be holding a 12 through 17, and the only way you can win is if the dealer busts, or you improve your hand. So any time you hold a 12 through 17 it’s bad news and you should expect to lose. In fact, approximately 85 percent of your financial losses occur with these hands. The best you can do when you are holding a 12 through 17 is to play your hand optimally using the basic playing strategy to minimize your losses.

7.The dealer has an Ace upcard. What is the chance she has a 10 in the hole for blackjack?

a. 15 percent

b. 24 percent

c. 31 percent

Answer: c. The dealer will have a ten four times out of 13, or roughly 31 percent of the time. The remaining 9 out of 13, or 69 percent of the time, the dealer won’t have a 10 in the hole. When you make the insurance bet, you are betting that the dealer has a ten in the hole when she shows an Ace. Assume you make a $10 insurance wager. Four times you’ll win $20 on the insurance bet (2 to 1 payoff odds) for a total win of $80. The other nine times you will lose $10 on your insurance bet for a total loss of $90. In other words, you lost more than you won. Therefore, it’s wise to never make the insurance bet.

8.The edge that card counters have over the casino is approximately:

a. 1 percent

b. 10 percent

c. 50 percent

Answer: a. Most players are surprised at the tiny one percent edge that card counters have over the house. Oftentimes, depending upon the game and the card counting system being used, the card counter’s edge is even less. With an edge this small, it means in the short run, luck will play a great role in the fortunes of a card counter, even though he will show a profit in the long-run.

So how did you do on the questions? It really doesn’t matter how many you got right or wrong, but whether or not I motivated you to play better. And I hope I did.

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Henry Tamburin is the Lead Instructor in the Golden Touch™ Blackjack course (www.goldentouchblackjack.com) and editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. For a free 3-month subscription to his blackjack newsletter with full membership privileges, visit www.bjinsider.com/free.